No Return

One thing I learned over the years is that social stability is often a kind of mass illusion. People, for example, tend to believe that prices remain steady, or always go up, or will go down. Or that the future will be better. Or that they should do certain things. Until, almost suddenly, everyone changes their mind.

There are parallels in science. Supersaturated solutions will suddenly crystallize. Some “tipping point” is reached and a structure fractures. All of a sudden, equilibrium is different. Or lost entirely to chaos .

Science prefers – which is to say we prefer – a smooth glide and predictable gradual transitions. Our forecasts generally assume trends are known and that the future will mostly resemble today. We project our own ambitions into a future that in most ways resembles our past .

That all works pretty well until it doesn’t. And, like those supersaturated solutions, things can change fast and in really unrecognizable combinations. Society reaches some point of no return – bread lines turn to looting, the king is killed, whatever – and nothing is ever the same again .

I guess things could all turn out to the good. But. Inflation, AI, automation, internet, fusion energy, ecologic disaster, endless lists. Any one of them could unexpectedly end what we assume to be forever .

And, really, not much we can do to predict or direct the outcome .

Modern Socialism

Politicians are once again concerned about “socialism” almost as much as they were about “communism” in days of yore. They predict bread lines in New York, no houses for anyone, and dust and empty shelves for all. Just as in the USSR, China under Mao, North Korea now. That economic vision (whatever it is) has been proved by history to fail .

Yet today, there are elements of socialism everywhere, as there are elements of capitalistic free enterprise almost everywhere. There are few bread lines, and few any worse than in the “food pantries” set up for the (more fortunate) indigent in the United States .

The fact is that none of these systems is as it once was. Socialism, communism, capitalism are all far different in current practice than their conceptions of 100 years ago. The ongoing industrial and information revolutions have changed economics mightily. A world of (at least temporary) abundance based on possible ecologic disaster fails to fit any of the classic patterns.

What is unfortunate is that every thinker with an ax to grind pulls out the old unvarnished philosophies instead of coming up with something new, positive, and relevant. Our current drift may sooner rather than later be disastrous .

Barbarians

The Greeks called those outside their linguistic tribe “barbarians” because their language sounded like “bar bar bar” (or “blah blah blah”) nonsense. The name stuck for anyone not abiding by the “civilized” rules _ implicit and explicit _ of any given society. Being a barbarian is in the eye of the beholder .

“Uncivilized” attitudes and behaviors from those within a tribe are more difficult. For the most part, that comes down to ignoring laws and customs and saving a special treatment (good and bad) for friends and family. Living and possibly ruling by petulant whim .

Obviously not all barbarians arrive from “outside” like Attila the Hun. Internal monsters and their gang are frequent interruptions in “the march of progress” which includes peace and prosperity. More importantly, civilization implies a stable or rising economic framework and basic security for its members.

Once a barbarian clique gains power, it is difficult to dislodge, since it uses all the leverage of the state to maintain position. It seems most such situations are resolved more by internal squabbles and knives than by anybody legally replacing them. And on occasion a violent revolution. Or, of course, outside invaders.

The best hope for those trapped in a culture captured by barbarians is to lie low and hope they quickly eliminate each other .

Coda

July 4th was a family gathering, senior generations, young adults, grandchildren. As the younger folks spoke of ambitions, hassles, fears and the future, the elders reminisced about what had been and how magically much of life had happened .

Then the party ended and we elders went back to whatever normal lives we each inhabit. And I realized that in this culture – at least for the more fortunate – old age is a kind of coda on reality .

Finally we are free of admonitions about what to do, what we must do, especially what we are supposed to do. Mostly the young – even as they love us dearly – want us to stay out of the way as they race along their narrow paths .

Earlier, that was somewhat frustrating, as we were used to racing ourselves. But sometime in our late ’70s, life truly slows into rocking chair time at least for stretches of our days, however much we may regret it .

And what we learned at the party was to pull out the old memories and nostalgia and personal tales, since it is as raconteurs that the young treasure us most .

Blame Game

All revolutionary, authoritarian, mob rule movements eventually come down to blaming someone else for your problems. MAGA voters are no different .

Once it was aristocrats, or Jews. Now it is illegal aliens who are responsible for crime, minorities who keep you from getting a good job, conspiracies which keep prices up, evil elites who burden good people with rules, fiendish Chinese who enable drug addiction. And on and on .

There’s a lot wrong with the world, and enough blame to go around. Now the populists are in power, rampaging like the directorate of 1793. No one and nothing is safe. There MUST be a simple fix to complex problems. SOMEONE is preventing us from using it .

But since the election, none of the cultists seem to ask: is crime down, are prices lower, are jobs better, does the future seem brighter, has anything actually improved in day-to-day individual life? The standard answer for all leaders in such a fix is “we have not gone far enough.” Punish more enemies. Check if they hide among your acquaintances, friends, family. Roll out the guillotines, send professors to the farms! Double down on what we are sure will work, somehow

It’s an old and continuous disease of every civilization that ever existed. We’ve never found a vaccine, cure, or antidote. Just plain human nature, I guess .

Impenetrable

There are many things I do not know nor understand. Some are too complex for my humble brain. Some simply do not interest me. Many I am too lazy to waste time on. But a few have become truly impenetrable .

To me, impenetrable carries a different connotation than “unknowable” _ an article of faith. I accept many things as unknowable – the meaning of life, the purpose of the universe – and most of the grand religious philosophic questions like free will and the true nature of time. Impenetrable rather means that something may have reasons, but they cannot be discovered by me. The best example is other people’s hidden motivations.

The boundaries between impenetrable and unknowable are tenuous and shifty. Which gets to my main focus of this essay: the future. I always accepted its details as unknowable, but I thought I understood the basic outline.

Nope. Now everything is both unknowable and impenetrable. Next year seems a gray goo, with no connection to the present. I can project no trends .

That annoys me because as an avid SF reader from childhood and student of history still, I unaccountably convinced myself I had some idea of what was happening and where the world might be going .

No more .

Bureaucracy

Bureaucracy is where most citizens interact with any government. Naturally, it is usually hated. The functions may be necessary, but no one loves a tax collector. Including the tax collector .

In the modern world, bureaucracy is the most stable institution of government. “Rulers come and go”, the tax collector remains. Soon it is all wrapped into a hated “deep state”. Since the days of the ancient empires, no matter who gets in charge, a tax collector or other agent will show up. “Meet the new boss …”

Our founding fathers didn’t think much about bureaucracy. There’s nothing about it in the Constitution. Except for national defense (and even most of that) they left it as a local matter to towns and states. They just figured folks would be temporarily hired at need .

It didn’t work. Bureaucracy grew from the beginning. But who was in charge? Just as corporations became “persons”, bureaucracy magically turned into an “executive function.” That’s surely wrong. It really should be fully controlled by the legislature. One of the big – really big – powers of the presidency that is completely unchecked .

And now, after centuries of civil service reform, it appears to be reverting to a “spoils system”. The second leg (politicization of the military is first) of establishing authoritarianism .

Paradigm Shifts

A paradigm shift occurs when former ways of thinking and living no longer work. In personal terms it means our common sense and traditional values no longer apply, and new ones must be created .

Joseph Campbell in his books on mythology made the interesting point that such historic cultural breaks often occurred rapidly (in about a hundred years) then settled in for a long time (thousands of years). A good example is ancient Egypt .

We seem to be in the midst of the whirlwind. Our thinking is forced into new patterns every year or so, sometimes even more often. And unfortunately, it is impossible to tell what will emerge or whether we will like it at all .

My point is that our times may be very unusual. After the dust settles – for better or worse – whatever system of thought survives may last for a very long time indeed .

Okay, a comforting long-term thought. But it doesn’t help each of us now as the storm rages and high waves rock the boat. All we can do is deal with changes as they wash over us one after another .

The curse of “interesting times”. At least we still have the option of imagining various happy outcomes .

Limits

There are two main purposes for any government. One is to provide group security. The second is to maintain social stability. If either fails, government change will occur .

A new book by Phil Gramm claims government should avoid all economic interaction. Like most capitalist visionaries, he certainly does NOT mean that government should not protect property or enforce contracts. Capitalism, after all, requires a certain amount of coercion .

Most of us have come to agree that free enterprise competition, “within limits” is the best economic system. Yet even fervent capitalists agree that monopoly – a natural tendency of successful business – is hardly free enterprise. ONE fruit seller in the market is not the way to better product and lower prices .

But the second purpose of government is what is in question right now. How many limits (“regulations, taxes”) should be placed on capitalistic enterprises to assure security continues? Zoning laws, poverty relief, public spaces, protection of natural resources (air, water) and on and on. It’s not as simple as the narrow-minded ivory tower economists pretend .

Many of us believe that in the modern world of abundance, a certain minimum level of lifestyle should be provided to all adults and a high lifestyle to all children. Not doing so is not only immorally mean, but also a danger to our civilization itself .

Smash and Dream.

Or maybe dream and smash? Angry people often believe that every problem is somebody else’s fault. If they can’t find an avatar scapegoat, they blame immigrants, government, society, or vague cabals. Somebody is obviously making them victims, because they’re not doing as well as mommy and daddy told them they would .

So they dream of a better world, like most of us. But they are certain that vague and evil powers will stop their desires. So first they must smash and destroy everything and rebuild in the rubble for a glorious future .

Oh, sure, lots of people will be hurt and die. Maybe even they will die. But they will be happy martyrs, welcomed into their vision of eternal heaven, admired down the future ages. Happy imaginations .

Usually, they expect that right will prevail. A little because it must be true and right. A lot because its purity will make it a strong survivor. To be honest, most of the greatest smashers also believe they will remain since they are the strongest .

Finally successful. Mommy and daddy must be proud .

And now – all settles down to sweetness and light .

Finally, the right people in charge .

The more things change …