Safety Margin

A race car driver going it over 100 mph can safely navigate within inches of another car. Not so an older impaired driver on an expressway. Safety margin varies with conditions and expertise .

It is natural to “dumb down” safety margin to the lowest (legal) common denominator. In theory, road speed limits are set for normal people and normal cars. Unfortunately, theory is usually  easily abused, especially when “experts” are not quite sure themselves. Even more so when jobs or legal issues are on the line .

We have reached an era when “safety margin” has metastasized into insanity. “Just to be safe” applied recursively to more and more of life, leads to ridiculous recommendations and either paralysis of attempting anything or simply ignoring advice totally .

Such seems to be the case with, for example, ultra processed foods, alcohol consumption, or exercise. It’s very hard to get a “ straight” medical answer to anything. A lot of experts “explain” things in such a way that they almost expect to be wrong and want their counsel in such a case to appear blameless. 

Intertwined with all this is an astounding ignorance of a sense of proportion. Doubling a chance of being hit by lightning (even if the infinitesimal risk is not exaggerated) is of no use to anyone at all unless they are already working as a steeplejack .

Glad You’re You?

The ” future should look like the past” crowd would try to have everyone live as as they imagine people lived in the 1950s. Presumably all songs written after 1955 would be banned. They should listen to a few of those cheerful tunes written during depression, dust bowl, and war. One that I like is “aren’t you glad you’re you?” Which neatly expresses my own take on a good life .

Reactionaries are always Cassandras. Their future is always bleak, and more horrible the more distantly they imagine. They are infected with lollipop nostalgia of a past that never was, and they are too dumb or too ignorant or too lazy to investigate actual history .

These days we are sandwiched between dour polarized fanatics. On one hand the future is evil because of climate change, computers, population growth, anthropocene extinction, and so forth. On the other side we are doomed by government, laws, social breakdown, and flagrant selfish individualism .

Are they right? Maybe. The one true axiom in all of economics is Keyne’s observation that “in the long run we are all dead.” Looking too far ahead, planning beyond yourself, worried about uncontrollable possibilities, have always been bad bets for living honestly, well, productively and – yes – socially .

So – “every time you’re near a rose, aren’t you glad you got a nose?” Spend each moment as joyfully and consciously as possible. Maybe we all die tomorrow. True history and our own common sense say “probably not.” And memory of the perfume of that flower will last as long as anything else in this unknowable universe .

Diocletian

Most Roman emperors did not die out of office. An exception was Diocletian, who retired after 30 years because of ill health, turning affairs over to a carefully selected, managed, and trained group of successors who promptly failed miserably. Diocletian himself spent his last 10 years or so on a villa happily raising vegetables. His other claim to fame is an attempt to restore the old virtues of the empire, primarily by bringing back wholesome old time-tested religion and getting rid of nasty upstart Christianity. That bloody, reactionary but well intentioned effort gained his evaluation infamy in the centuries to come .

The question, of course, is would the empire have been better served had he remained in office and left vegetables to the peasants. I would answer no. Lots of other problems were combining against the Romans by that time, even though the many reforms of Diocletian did stave off the inevitable for almost two centuries. Another 10 years in office, even if effective, would hardly have changed the course of history dramatically .

The reason this is relevant is that modern aging leaders in business truly believe that the world would fall apart without them and that their imagined godlike power will continue after they are gone. Stocks have a saying: “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” Which should be applied to ancient politicians and business magnates. Perhaps we’d all be happier and better off if they retired and had fun growing cabbages .

Ultra Hyped

A current bugaboo is worry about “ultra processed” foods. On examination, this label turns out to mean to have about as much meaning as anything with “turbo” in the description. “Ultra” used to be defined pretty synonymously with “extreme” or even a little more extreme than regular old extreme. But this connotation has apparently eroded just as much as the other older term, simply slapped on headlines and attention seeking studies to grab interest by shouting about new worries .

” Ultra processed food” is a perfect case in point. On a normal dial indicating, for example, speed, the indicator would range from stop through slow, moderate, fast, to insanely fast or ultra. But the equivalent food dial would label everything under 10 or 15 mph as okay and anything above as “horribly fast.” A fairly useless guide .

So now “ultra” is being slapped on everything bad in the same way “new, improved” used to be attached to anything good. I’m aware that word meanings and especially connotations mutate frequently, so there is little to really get annoyed at. It’s the ridiculously set binary division that is truly crazy .

I will continue to use my own food dial which runs approximately from raw, prepared, lightly processed, heavily processed and – yes – ultra processed. And not to be too worried about occasionally enjoying the “worst” which are – after all _ sometimes very delicious and many of which whole populations have been eating for decades .

Productive Work

“Idle hands are the devil’s playground” has long been a mantra in this country. Republican conservatives truly believe that it is better to make everyone dig holes and fill them up again than to “do nothing”. Otherwise those folks will just lounge around watching TV, making love, and drinking beer. Perhaps our fundamental religious elements should be reminded that such was presumably exactly the case in the garden of Eden before the “Fall.”

Work can be defined in two ways. One is as anything that a person does not want to do. The other is anything for which someone is paid. Often, but not always, those are congruent. The happiest people are those who find _ like me (and coding) or many sports stars – that they truly enjoy what they make money at. Even the wealthy professionals who brag about their long toil spend hours playing golf, eating lavish meals, or sailing yachts as they conduct “useful” business .

The biggest problems are in working out what is truly socially useful and how to pay for it, and what to do for sporadic or short-term or long ago labor. An influencer who may have had six months popularity, – rideshare driver or – again – aging athletes. And is an “influencer” popularizing multi-thousand dollar handbags really doing more productive socially useful work than a daycare worker? 

In other words there are a lot of gaps in what seems to be an obvious and simple truth. In our extremely complex world, slogans of any type tend to obscure more than they instruct .

Deep State Fan

It is fashionable to hate government at all levels. I may be one of the last overt fans of the “deep state” so detested by just about everyone. These latter-day Marxists and Rousseauians are sure that if the state would just go away, the natural goodness (or Darwinian selection) of humanity would prevail to set up a far more perfect world. Where men are men and nobody tells anybody else what to do. And notably, where the speaker (whoever or whatever he or she may be) is on top .

Petty regulations are very annoying. But one person’s “petty regulation” – like no playing loud music in the backyard at 3:00 a.m._ is another person’s “necessary civil common sense.” Typically the real problem is when rules useful in a crowded urban setting are applied to open rural areas .

There are also many kinds of overlords. With no consensual government, monopolistic corporations like 1890 steel mills and coal mines dictate life in company towns and company stores. The biggest organization is always the de facto government. Mobs led by demagogues take over social mediation – often based on revealed (to the demagogue) religion. And so on – to true dystopia .

Me – I like a rule-based stable bureaucracy. It provides employment for the less aggressively greedy and for all its minor irritations smooths most life for everyone. I don’t want it filled with acolytes of the last party to win elections. I myself have strong doubts about Rousseau or Marx.

But I guess it’s a clever meme phrase, in an age that grasps clever memes as if they represented wisdom .

Chipmunk

Even prisoners in a cell have cockroaches, rats and an occasional literary canary as local wildlife. Even city dwellers are familiar, in addition, with pigeons, raccoons, and the occasional falcon or fox or coyote. Here in the suburbs we even have larger fauna such as deer. But my favorite lately has been our little population of chipmunks .

In general they are cute, timid, do little harm, and should they accidentally get into a house only try to get out again as quickly as possible. They dash from place to place avoiding predators and pop into almost invisible holes in the lawn. They eat with paws carefully, like good children or – yes – proverbial monks .

There is currently a bad vibe that they may be one of the vectors for the ticks that cause Lyme disease. But never directly. They seem to cause no real damage. Unlike, for example, mice, their populations do not explode. Did I mention they are cute? It’s hard not to smile when you see them. Finally, it’s nice to believe they remain truly wild .

Of course there is lots of other stuff even now in this land of parking lots, pavement, pools, and sterilized lawns. Many animals and birds, some thriving, some barely hanging on. All of it interesting .

But a chipmunk can be a circus in itself .

Hoover. Damn

Herbert Hoover was a fine and daring engineer. He turned his organizational skills to effective relief efforts after World War I. He was a smart, organized, compassionate man. He is remembered with disdain bordering on revulsion .

Most economic historians remain uncertain about the exact reasons for the market crash of 1929 and the great worldwide depression that followed. Most political historians still argue about what would have been the most effective political response .

No matter. Blame President Hoover, after all it occurred on his watch. 

I fear that whoever the next president may be, he or she will face much the same circumstance. Shortly – possibly already – “climate change” will grow into “climate crisis” and shortly afterward “climate catastrophe”. Food supplies and economic networks will be lost or severely affected. Social systems and international relations will become bitterly chaotic. Planning may turn into a hopeless nightmare .

I doubt if it is existential to the human race, although mass depopulation seems likely, unless the crumbling leads to full nuclear war. I do believe it is existential to “civilization as we know it.” Right now will be nostalgically remembered as the “roaring twenties” once were .

And no matter the party or avowed policies, or heroic attempts to overcome the tragedies, it will all be labeled as a fault of President Whoever. 

Free Will

From a quantum physics standpoint everything we sense does not exist. A leaf on a tree is not “really” green, or shiny, or soft with rough edges. Songs from birds or the rush of wind are sensations manufactured for us by an imaginative brain using very partial evidence. So it is no surprise that quantum now demonstrates time does not exist .

The only relevant thing about that – like similar arguments about an omniscient omnipotent God – is that you and I have no free will. Everything we will do is exactly like our past, already cast in stone. Unfortunately, since we do make choices all the time – or die – this is a pretty corrosive attitude .

The plain fact is that our consciousness inhabits only a tiny fraction of whatever “everything” may be. Much of what we know is “true” – like the manifestation of a leaf to our senses – is in “higher reality” not there – just an odd assemblage of molecules and wavicles that themselves are not what they seem .

However, and in “truly real” contradiction, I can choose to eat this green leaf of lettuce. Once I have done so, that choice is frozen. Until then -well so what ?

Mathematics is just as much – or more _ of an imaginary illusion as the leaf. Those who seek to find the “true meaning” of it all are doomed to failure. We are, in fact, “all that we can be,” free will included, and no more than that .

Birdsong Morning

No matter how troubled the world, there are still infinite treasures available to me. Most are concerned with my immediate physical being. The taste of a strawberry. A good night’s sleep. Birdsong in the morning .

Each day, first thing, being an old-fashioned type of guy, I go down the driveway to get the daily paper. No matter what hour, there are some bird noises. Early enough, it is more a beautiful symphony. The various notes and calls assure me that all is well .

Oh, I am quite aware that it may not be so. Birds, like everything else (except maybe bacteria and viruses) are in some danger of extinction in the near future. My printed news may stop at any time. My own brief stay in this universe is coming to an end .

But … today can still be glorious! The world remains vast. Many birds still serenade at breakfast, even as the mix of species varies with climate change. All may not be well, but I can at least pretend it may be so, or will be so, or could be so .

Ignoring the very news I gather off the concrete, I return inside, briefly cheered by wild nature. I suspect life has often been so for almost everyone through all the ages.